A Really Nervous Feeling

Several official sources in Pakistan are providing incredible reports of Taliban casualties in battles raging in Northwest Pakistan. In the district of Shangla, which is adjacent to Swat, the Pakistani military has actually reported more Taliban casualties than the size of the entire Taliban contingent it had previously reported there. US military sources are quoted as describing the Pakistani claims as "wildly exaggerated." Oh, really?

There is no question the Pakistani military is seriously engaging the Taliban now that they have actually threatened the federal government. Approximately 15,ooo regular Army troops appear to now be committed and I have seen reports in the Pakistani press that several more brigades are on their way to join the fight. Facing them are an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 Taliban fighters who are reported to be very brave but tactically inept.

However, the Army appears reluctant to engage the Taliban with the ground forces. Assaults thus far have relied almost exclusively upon massive bombardment by artillery, fixed wing air, and helicopter gunship. While these attacks are undoubtedly impressive to watch and they do result in flattened villages (some of which received no prior warning to the civilian populace) and destroyed Taliban fixed positions, it is impossible to believe the absurd enemy casualty figures provided by the government which range up to 10 per cent of total estimated Taliban strength.

As the US Army learned in Iraq, successful counterinsurgency operations require "boots on the ground" in both kinetic and civil affairs operations. While the Pakistani operation may just be in its early stages and the ground forces will engage later, it's not an encouraging sign that the government is claiming such fantastic success at this juncture.

Following last week's meeting in Washington between Presidents Zardari and Obama, it is pretty obvious that the Pakistanis are trying to create the impression of much accomplishment while still actually doing very little of substance. That leads me to the conclusion that the administration promised them something highly desirous in return for firm action against the Taliban and they want it very much.

Where have we seen this before? A reluctant military operating against a dedicated enemy and reporting unbelievably successful results. Results that are inevitably reported just a short time after Uncle Sam promises tons of filthy lucre to a weak and corrupt government. Doesn't it sound like the news coming from some banana republic just before it falls? And compounding it this time are the nuclear weapons which could wind up in the hands of Islamic extremists.

Why am I getting a really nervous feeling about this?