A Bullet Dodged

The results of the Lebanese Parliamentary elections were a pleasant surprise and a major crisis in the Middle East averted. Although the Obama administration, which dispatched Vice President (and Bumbler-in-Chief) Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the country to indicate US support of the March 14 coalition, would like to and probably will claim credit for shaping the March 14 electoral victory I believe it was the simple pronouncement of the Maronite Christian patriach that averted the disaster of a Hizb Allah government in Beirut.

The pre-election statement on Saturday by Nasrallah Butros Sfeir that Iranian attempts to influence the elections outcome and would "change the face of Lebanon" apparently caused enough Lebanese Christians in crucial districts to change their votes from Michel Aoun's Free Patriot Movement to parties that supported the March 14 coalition. As a result, the coalition actually increased its Parliamentary representation from 70 seats by one. So far this has allowed Lebanon to dodge the bullet of the international isolation and almost certain economic ruin sure to follow the seating of a Hizb Allah government, but all is still not rosy.

Hizb Allah has amply demonstrated a propensity for eliminating its political rivals. A series of political assassinations can certainly be expected but the big question is whether Hizb Allah decides to be satisfied remaining in opposition for the time being or if it will use its well-armed and trained militia to seize power. The key is the veto power that Hizb Allah obtained through the use of force last year. With its majority increased, however slightly, March 14 is not inclined to grant that concession.

So the stage is set. I believe Hizb Allah, despite the benign acquiesence thus far stated by its leader Nasrallah, is simply waiting for the outcome of Sunday's presidential election in Iran. If Ahmadinejad retains the presidency the mullahs in Tehran will probably feel secure enough to allow Nasrallah to demand veto power in any new Lebanese government. If March 14 is not willing to grant it the likelihood of renewed civil war in Lebanon is a bullet that the new government may not be able to dodge.