A Revolution Or Just A Power Struggle?

The unrest in Iran brings delicious thoughts of not only a regime change but also a thaw and major improvement in relations with the United States. Thousands and sometimes millions at a time have taken to the streets to protest the announced result of last Friday's presidential election. Violence has flared as they have clashed with security forces and images of the cataclysmic events of 1979 and the Shah's last days come to mind. But I wonder if we are seeing another revolution or simply witnessing a very messy power struggle by competing factions within the existing governing system.

The leaders of the opposition and the ones calling the shots for the protesters' activities appear to be losing presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and Ayatollah 'Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Both men are veterans of the 1979 revolution and have served or currently serve in high positions in the Islamic Republic. In 1979 Mousavi was appointed by Ayatollah Khomeini as the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Council and served as prime minister from 1981 until the post was abolished in 1989. Ayatollah Rafsanjani is currently chairman of the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Discernment Council, both of which are vital to the functioning of the government. Neither is friendly with their counterparts, winning presidential candidate Ahmedinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, but their differences seem to be more personal than idealogical.

And so should the protestors succeed and force the downfall of Ahmedinejad and Khamenei, I would expect Mousavi to assume the presidency and Rafsanjani to be elected Supreme Leader by the same Assembly of Experts that he currently chairs. Because of their commitment to the Islamic Republic I would also expect a continuation of many of the existing policies of the current government and only a very slight thawing in US-Iranian relations. Therefore, current events in Iran seem to me much more of an internal power struggle than a revolution that will lead to significant change.