Elections for the Lebanese Parliament will be held Sunday, June 7. Although there are over 20 different political parties fielding candidates, the election really comes down to a collection of parties that are pro-Syrian and an anti-Syrian coalition. Currently the anti-Syrian March 14th coalition, named for the date in 2005 the huge rally was held in Beirut which forced the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon after a long occupation, holds a majority with 70 of the 128 seats. But there are strong indications that the pro-Syrian coalition led by Hizb Allah could capture enough seats to form the new government. No matter which coalition is the winner it is difficult to see anything but trouble ahead for Lebanon.
If the March 14th group of parties do win a majority, which will not be easy given the disarray exhibited by the coalition during the campaign, it is highly likely that Hizb Allah will claim election tampering and attempt to have the results overthrown. It is even more likely that they will respond to a March 14th victory by using their highly-trained, well-armed militia to start another civil war. The Lebanese Army is no match for Hizb Allah and it is even questionable if it would even attempt to intercede in the ensuing conflict. The country is just now starting to really recover from its previous 15 year civil war and any renewed fighting, almost certain to be as especially bloody as it was the last time, would be disastrous to the country and, ironically, lead to the return of the Syrian occupation.
Equally disastrous would be the formation of a government led by an Iranian ally. Evidence of Iranian intentions to meddle in the internal affairs of Lebanon was presented by Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hizb Allah, last week in a speech in which he announced Iran's intention to provide a Lebanese government led by his party with advanced air defense missiles. These missiles would of course be intended primarily against Israeli reconnaissance overflights and it is difficult to imagine that the Israelis would not act at the earliest opportunity to eliminate such a threat.
In addition, anti-Iranian Arab countries would also view a Hizb Allah victory with alarm. They're already wary of Iranian intentions in the Arabian Gulf littoral and they would not welcome a Lebanese government friendly toward Tehran. It is entirely feasible that Lebanon, like Syria, could find itself isolated in the Arab world for its friendly relations with Iran. That could impose some economic hardships in a country that relies so heavily upon tourism and prides itself as the party capitol of the Arab world. It is almost impossible to imagine the stern and sober mullahs in Tehran countenancing the continuation of that.
And the U.S. would also have some strong reservations about a Lebanese government led by Hizb Allah which it has declared as a terrorist organization. As such, heavy sanctions would likely be imposed similar to the ones imposed on Syria. Further economic damage would result and all military assistance to Lebanon would cease, but possibly even worse would be the damage to the relations between Washington and Beirut. A spirit of friendship and cooperation has existed between the two capitals for decades but I simply cannot imagine even the appeasement seeking Obama administration allowing it to continue.
And so, it looks as if Lebanon is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. No matter which way it votes, catastrophe looms. And it seems impossible to divine which path is least catastrophic.
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